Around half year ago, Rwanda held presidential election which for many bystanders were purely symbolical. It was certain that the current president – Paul Kagame, who stays in power for over 30 years now, will gain another victory. The results were cherry on top, showing all time popularity of the president. However, the “newly” elected president needs to face the old demons of ethnic tensions.

Author: Roman Kościelny

A „model” state

In July, Paul Kagame won the election in Rwanda – once again. With his all-time high result, he could be quite confident about his grip on power in the country. Kagame rules the country since the year 2000. He came into the power during the chaos caused by the biggest tragedy in the history of this small African country – Rwandan Genocide. It was caused by the growing tensions between the two ethnic groups living in the country, Tutsi and Hutu. For a very long time, Tutsi enjoyed higher status, both under the colonial rule, and later in the independent country. Hutu on the other hand were, and still are, a majority in both Rwanda and neighboring Burundi. 

The Tutsi minority held the power in Rwanda for most of its history. They had the monarchy, occasional support of the colonial overlords, and the current president is also a Tutsi himself. But that wasn’t always the case. As a matter of fact, Rwanda was a Hutu’s controlled country for quite a long time.

One state, and three tribes

In January of 1961, the local bourgmestres, and municipal counselors decided to declare the independence of Rwanda. Which at that time was an UN mandate. It happened right after Belgian authorities decided to support local Hutu population, and replace the local administration. Newly born Rwanda republic was a Hutu controlled state. It all happened in the shadow of violence against local Tutsi, and Twa population. Around 23.000 ended up in displacement camps. Over 130.000 started a mass exodus to Belgian Condo, Burundi, Tanganika, and Uganda in 1963.

Most of those countries remain engaged in the events between the ethnic minorities of Rwanda in one way or another. Burundi faces their own issues with ethnic violence like Ikiza – the series of mass murders of Hutu, conducted by Tutsi controlled military. Further political machinations conducted by ex-colonial powers and great powers from all around the globe didn’t help the situation. In Rwanda, the violence finally erupted in 1990, causing a civil war, that led to infamous Rwandan Genocide in 1994. 

The war was caused by Rwandan Patriotic Front’s invasion from Ugandan territory. The same Rwandan Patriotic Front which now rules the country, and Paul Kagame, who then was a commander of RPF, became president in 2000. He has stayed in office since then, winning consecutive elections since then. 30 years had passed since those events, and Rwanda changed. Country’s economy experienced a 9.8% GPD’s growth in the second quarter of the 2024, following the 9.7% growth in the first quarter of the year. It’s one of the fastest growing economies of Africa, which seemingly moved on from it’s tragic past. The truth from behind the economic statistics is much more complex, however.

Rwandan-Congolese conflict

It’s no secret that eastern Congo is very violent region at the moment. Various factions struggle for power. And among them, we can find the M23 – a guerilla group, which claims that their main purpose is the defense of Tutsi population in the area of eastern Congo. Recently, more and more evidence came up, supporting the theory, that the group is actively supported by the Rwandan Army.

After all, the members of Rwandan Defense Force are fighting in Eastern Congo, hand to hand with M23 rebels. And both sides acknowledge this. January fights for the city of Goma, near the border with Rwanda, saw the defeated Congolese soldiers surrendering, by simply crossing the border into Rwanda. They were often escorted by Rwandan forces. The official narrative is different however. 

President Kagame denies any involment of the Rwandan forces in the Congolese conflict. Not only that, he also tries to cover up the evidence for the engagement at home. It becomes more challenging with each day. Witnesses speak of rushed burials and mass graves full of dead soldiers back in Congo, and the satellite images of Kigali show their military’s cemetery growing rapidly.

Moreover, currently the M23 is led by Sultani Makenga – a Congolese rebel and ex-member of its military, who deflected to join the M23 in 2012. Makenga also fought in Rwandan Civil War, against the Hutu regime which ruled the country back then. M23 leader managed to supply his forces with weapons normally issued to Rwandan Defense Forces, which was proven by Congo’s military. Not only that but he also brought weaponry never used in eastern Congo on the mass scale, such as anti-tank missiles.

Genesis and consequences of the conflict

This conflict has its genesis in the Rwandan Genocide from 1994. It had a huge role in causing the First Congolese War back in 1990s. At first it seemed like Rwanda had an upper hand in this conflict. However, the loses are staggering, and Rwanda faces an international backlash over this conflict. UK has just sanctioned the country, suspending bilateral aid to Rwanda. Moreover, despite the brief ceasefire, the M23 has moved its forces on Bukavu, capturing the city without facing much of a resistance from Congolese forces.

While M23 advances further into the country, Rwanda and Congo wrestle on international stage for the international support. When Rwanda and US signed a deal for exporting rare materials to US, Congolese president reacted with suggestion that they would be a much better partner over Rwanda. Moreover, he claims that Rwanda suffers from “mania to be an Apex Predator” in the region.

Rwanda managed to reinvent itself since its last civil war. Yet Paul Kagame’s regime faces a handful of challenges. From accusations of human rights violation, and undemocratic practices, to an open war with a country less stable than Rwanda itself but hundred times bigger. Surely, the future of Rwanda will be an interesting one. The question stands if will it be interesting in positive or negative way.

Bibliography:

[1] The evidence shows that Rwanda is backing the rebels in DR Congo – Ian Wafula, BBC 
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgyzl1mlkvo
[2] Rwanda backed M23 rebels capture eastern DRC second largest city 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/17/rwanda-backed-m23-rebels-capture-drc-city-bukavu
[3] Gerard Prunier –The Rwanda Crisis, 1959–1994: History of a Genocide. p. 51-53
[4] RWANDA REGISTERS 9.8% ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SECOND QUARTER OF 2024 
https://www.minecofin.gov.rw/news-detail/rwanda-registers-98-economic-growth-in-second-quarter-of-2024
[5] Arnald Russel – Rebel and Rule in Burundi, p.72-96
[6] UK to suspend bilateral aid to Rwanda over Congo conflict – William James, Reuters 
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/uk-pause-bilateral-aid-rwanda-over-congo-conflict-2025-02-25/
[7] Rwandan troops dying in large numbers in DRC despite official denials of role
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/feb/07/democratic-republic-congo-drc-paul-kagame-m23-rebels-goma-rwanda-troops-dying-denials
[8] Elections: President Kagame wins with more than 99% of the vote 
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cnk413ze07lo
[9] The DR Congo rebel whose fighters have created turmoil – Wedaeli Chibelushi, BBC
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgq0gxp04q2o
[10] Why Rwanda and Congo are on the bring of war? – Elian Peltier, New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/world/africa/congo-m23-rwanda.html#link-1bc97f81